November 1, 2010

Nov 2, 2010 Election Prediction - local races (IL)

Okay, I do this every election, but now I've have a way to say, "I told you so" or "Whoops". Here are my predictions for tomorrow's election.

I believe the post-election headlines will scream two things - First, 'Split decision - Republicans take House in landslide while Democrats hold a one-vote majority in the Senate' (yes, one vote - because Murkowski will win with her independent write-in campaign in AK - whoo hoo!). The second part of the headline may actually be blacked out in some papers, CNN and the three old networks, as I suspect it will. But the second surprise of the night will be that Third Parties have gotten 3, 5, even 10 times the votes they normally do and we will officially be a 4-Party system - about time.

On the local level here in Illinois, I believe it won't depend so much on who turns out more, the Dems or GOP. Instead, the results will be determined by which Third Party takes away the most votes. If the Greens take more votes from the Dems than the Libertarians take from the GOP, the GOP wins big. If it's the other way around, the Dems win big. My personal hunch is that the Greens will siphon off more votes because many Libertarians are supporting Tea Party Republicans.

Here are my predictions for our local races here in Chicago, along with a little commentary on some.

US Senate - Kirk wins by a few points (he's the lesser of two evils, not to me, but whatever)
Governor - Quinn wins in a statistical tie (he's the only honest politician in IL. Honest wins over smart in this election)
County Assessor - Claypool wins, barely and I hope (if he loses, it's because his campaign put too much emphasis on phone banks and harassing phone calls)
AG - Speaker Madigan's daughter ('nuff said)
Comptroller - Topinka (I just don't like her)
Congress 5th Dist. - Quigley wins big (I do like him)
Kirk's old Congressional seat, whatever number it is - Whats-his-name beats Dan Seals (Seals misleading ads were too much)
St. Senator 10th - Mulroe wins in the most chaotic race of the night (Doherty's misleading ads were too much and the city Dems will out-Machine the suburban GOP)

Last but not least, for our friends in Cali, I say "Yes on 19". Unfortunately, pot heads just don't vote. The 'legalize marijuana' referendum will go up in smoke - mmmm...smoke.

Whatever your political persuasion, GET OUT AND VOTE!!!

To all the people volunteering all night tonight, putting up signs and prepping materials for election day, here's to you.

Joe Sixpack
and the Six Pack Posse

1 comment:

  1. Just for the record, and if I may brag a bit, every single prediction I made above came true, except one. And since it was the only race I actually gave a reason why I'd be wrong, I hope you can give me partial credit for that one. He was the only independent with a chance. I had to send him good karma.

    So, aside from that, I actually picked every single election contest correctly. I even won a contest at AM 15-something or other, sports radio Springfield, IL - whoo hoo!!

    Apparently, someone else tied me for accurately predicting every single race. But I also called the 'voter turnout' right on the money and won the tie-breaker, and the bucks - I'm poor, so again, whoo-hoo!!

    Can't wait for next election. Stay tuned. It's coming fast.

    Stay strong, stay safe and stay independent!

    Joe Six Pack
    and the Six Pack Posse